lottery numbers - picking my own numbers vs. selecting "quick pick" - statistical question ...?

Question

i see that most lottery winners (in the 70 percent area) play quick pick. however, it seems that quick pick would necessitate that in a way the same set of random numbers comes up twice - first on your ticket, and then as the lottery results. i know that for any lottery any set of numbers has an equal chance, but that there are also longer-range statistics that would seemingly favor just putting down a set of numbers, any numbers, rather than hoping these numbers come up twice - or, especially playing the same numbers for a long time ... i don't know exactly how to ask, but if someone can speak to the statistical differences between picking my own numbers and quick pick, i'd appreciate it!

Answer 1

As far as the actual numbers, any combination has the same chance. However the difference is in the amounts won. People who choose their on numbers tend to use a lot of birthdays as their picks. This makes the numbers under 30 appear on many more tickets. So when they do win there is a greater chance of splitting the pot. This cause the average win for self picked tickets to be lower in value.

Answer 2

I would suspect that in that particular lottery game, they try to make it as truly random as possible. I don't think there would be any statistical difference in probability of winning either way.



You say your reason for thinking quick pick would have a lower chance of winning is because that number would have to be chosen randomly 2 times. Once on your ticket and once at the drawing. The issue with your logic here is that the two events are independent. It's like rolling dice. If you roll a 1, that does not decrease the chance that you will roll a 1 on your second roll. Each roll is independent. Same thing with the quick pick unless the government has some sort of scam going on where the generated quick pick numbers are sent back to base via network and then the chances they'll be picked are intentionally decreased.



So if you're a conspiracy theorist, pick your own numbers. If not, do quick pick. Or if you don't want to pay a regressive tax or waste money in an intentionally unfair game, don't play the lottery. Playing the lottery is like playing at a casino. It may be fun, but you have to realize the cards are stacked against you.



If you want to do something that will make you happy, get some KFC. That's what I do.

Answer 3

The argument about coming up twice applies equally whether you quick pick or choose your own numbers; In one case, a machine has to kick out the numbers, and in the other case your brain has to kick out the numbers. Then the "lottery" has to match that set of numbers. Makes no difference; if you participate, you have a marginally better chance of winning than I do, because I don't buy lottery tickets.