Another Poker Probability Question..Is mine right?

Question

Texas Hold'em
On the fourth card (turn) it falls:
King, King, King, Jack

my hand:
Jack, Five

What is the probability one of the other 9 has a king in their hand

probability of getting a king in your hand if you are one of ther 9 players

(1C1)(46C1)/(46C2)=0.044444444

so i went to excel and typed this in which is the probability that all the hands had no kings

=BINOMDIST(0,9,.0444,TRUE) = 0.664207043

so 1-0.664207043 = 0.335792957

Answer 1

Well, if there are 10 players, they each have 2 cards, so there are 20 cards out on the table of a 52 card deck...

And there are four cards on the table, which means that there are 29 cards in the deck remaining...

which means that there's a 41% chance that one of the 10 people at the table had that kind and a little over a 60% chance that it's in the deck.



This isn't high level math, but rather a guess and check, and of course did not take into account that 1 of teh 10 knows what his cards were and doesn't know what the other 9's cards were... but I think you're absolutely right.



Now, where the odds are skewed is whether the guy with the King stayed in after the first round of betting (unlikely with 10 hands because you really need a quite good hand when there are so many players).



The odds of getting a full house with the King were very small, but the odds that, once three kings and a jack were turned, one person on the table had the fourth king, is a minority but still low.



you're absolutely right.

Answer 2

I would call marginal bets all the way until then end. Not a hand to raise or go allin with. The odds of you flatout winning are about 10 percent. Because 9 other people have to dodge 4 cards: The other 3 jacks and a king, If any one of these 9 people hold these cards, you are only going to tie at best.

Answer 3

I would definiely bet big on it or any full house