Question:
PLEASE HELP!!! Probability question?
anonymous
1970-01-01 00:00:00 UTC
PLEASE HELP!!! Probability question?
Nine answers:
Madhukar
2009-05-05 08:24:36 UTC
At least 2 boys means 2, 3 or 4 boys

Required probability

= 1 - probability of no boys or 1 boy

= 1 - 4C0 (1/2)^4 - 4C1 (1/2)^4

= 1 - 5 * (1/2)^4

= 1 - 5/16

= 11/16.
Eyal Lev
2009-05-05 08:44:01 UTC
let's do this the long way:

write down all the possible ways they can have 4 kids

1: BBBB

2: BBBG

3: BBGB

4: BBGG

5: BGBB

6: BGBG

7: BGGB

8: BGGG

9: GBBB

10: GBBG

11: GBGB

12: GBGG

13: GGBB

14: GGBG

15: GGGB

16: GGGG



which cases answer your "at least 2 boys"?

1,2,3,4,5,6,7,9,10,11,13



so out of 16, 11 cases are "good", so you have 11/16



other way:

add the odds for each of the following:

odds for only boys (1/16)

odds for 1girl, 3 boys (4 * 1/16) <= 4 is the number of combinations of 1 out of 4

odds for 2girls, 2 boys (6 * 1/16) <= 6 is the number of combinations of 2 out of 4



another way:

subtract the following from 1:

odds for only girls (1/16)

odds for 1 boy, 3 girls (4 * 1/16)<= 4 is the number of combinations of 1 out of 4



in each of these, I use 1/16, because that's the chance of any boy-girl (ordered) combination of 4 (1/2^4)



hope this helps.
Martin F
2009-05-05 08:37:39 UTC
Binomial probability distribution with n = 4, p = 0.5 . . .



p(at least two boys) = p(two boys) + p(three boys) + p(four boys) . . .



from tables = 11/16 = 0.6875
Jeff Q
2009-05-05 10:09:23 UTC
Madhukar Daftary has the correct answer using combinatorial notation. "nCk" is an ASCII shorthand for C(n,k) [n objects chosen k at a time], which equals n!/(k!(n-k)!), where ! is the factorial function; i.e, n! = 1 * 2 * 3 * ... * n. (Writing ASCII versions of mathematical functions is a real pain.) Stacey191919 makes perhaps the most common mistake in probability (other than simple typos and arithmetic errors): she has useful formulae, but she doesn't phrase the question correctly and so gets an incorrect answer. The others before them are just guessing, which is almost always wrong in then often-counterintuitive mathematics of probability. (I wrote this immediately after Stacey's post, so I can't comment on later posts.)



The key questions here is in what ways one might have "two or more boys" out of four. Madhukar's statement is the clearest: you can have 2, 3, or 4. This also means you cannot have 0 or 1. Since these states are mutually exclusive (no matter what, out of four children you will always have 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4 boys, ignoring extremely rare genetic cases), they must all add up to 1 (or 100%). It's easier to calculate two probabilities (0 or 1) than 3 (2, 3, or 4), so he did it that and subtracted it from 1 to get the probability that his cases did NOT happen. (The cases must be mutually exclusive for this to work -- another common error.)



If you're not into combinatorials or factorials, you can think of it this way:



* There are 16 possible outcomes (2 sexes each for 4 children = 2^4 = 16).

* Only one is "no boys". That's 1/16.

* For 1 boy, you can have him first, second, third, or fourth. That's 4/16.

* So 5 out of 16 cases are "0 or 1 boys".

* All the other cases must acceptable ("2, 3, or 4 boys"), so that's 1 - 5/16 = 11/16.



Of course, this is only relatively easy for small, simple problems. That's why they invented the formal math.



For basic programmers (in any language), one way I've found to do sanity checks on probability calculations is to write a quick program to test my understanding of the situation. It performs thousands of tries and adds up the results to show what the actual statistics of the model might be. Here, you could write this (expressed in pseudo-Basic):





' Comments start with apostrophe (') and end at end of line.

' You may need to adjust some names, numbers, and syntax

' to match your programming language.

' Assume "DIM results[5]" creates array with elements (0,1,2,3,4), all set to 0.

' Each element "results[X]" will add up the number of times we had "X" boys.

DIM results[5]

' We'll run through 16000 families with four kids.

FOR family = 1 TO 16000

b = 0

FOR child = 1 TO 4

r = RANDOM(2) ' assume RANDOM(2) returns either 1 or 2

' We'll consider 1=girl and 2=boy.

IF r = 2 THEN b = b + 1

NEXT child

' b now has 0-4, representing how many boys of 4 kids this family had.

' Increment case where number of boys is "b".

results[b] = results[b] + 1

NEXT family

PRINT "0 boys:", results[0]

PRINT "1 boy: ", results[1]

PRINT "2 boys:", results[2]

PRINT "3 boys:", results[3]

PRINT "4 boys:", results[4]



PRINT "2 or more boys:", results[2] + results[3] + results[4]

PRINT "At most 1 boy: ", results[0] + results[1]





Given 16 possibilities, you should get a decent probability distribution after 16000 runs. You should find that "2 or more boys" is pretty close to 0.6875, or 11/16. I added all the other PRINT statements to show how the general distribution went. The last PRINT, "At most 1 boy", is the opposite of "2 or more boys", so the last two numbers should ALWAYS add up to 1.000, even if the distribution doesn't reflect the odds (e.g., if you only ran it a few times). That's a sanity check to help ensure you haven't made a logical error, which is all too easy both in probability and in programming.



Hope this helps.
anonymous
2009-05-05 08:27:49 UTC
There are rules wth probabilty...

If the question asks for a AND b - you multiply the probabilities,

If the question asks for a OR b - you add the probabilites...



So in this case...



P(Boy) = 0.5

P(At least 2boys) = P(BOY) AND P(BOY)

Therefore....



P(at least 2 boys) = 0.5 x 0.5

= 0.25



Hope this helps!
Tiffany P
2009-05-05 08:23:01 UTC
I belive it is still 1/2 but im not totally sure i just assume because the probability would not change.
anonymous
2009-05-05 08:22:23 UTC
1/2 X 1/2



1/4...



hope this helped
anonymous
2009-05-05 08:22:09 UTC
50% becasuse 1/2 of 4 is 2 = 2/4 = 1/2 =50%!
xaxorm
2009-05-05 08:40:26 UTC
11/16 is correct. Tricky because there are multiple birth orders:



The chance of any exact result specific to order is 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/16



P (all boys) is 1/16, there's only one way to do that: have a boy every time.



P (3 boys one girl) is 4/16, because you can have the one girl in 4 different positions (first, 2nd, 3rd or 4th).



P (2 boys and 2 girls) = 6/16, because you can have "two things among four" in six different ways (xxoo, oxxo, ooxx, xoxo, oxox, xoox)



So, the sum of those is our answer: 11/16.


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